It was 60 days prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. The historical record, a general sense of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have strung together 10 in a row, they seem curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
