Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
